When it comes to the size of the labor force, the United States is one of the top contenders in the world. According to official government data, the US has a labor force of 160.4 million people, making it the third-largest labor force in the world. China and India are first and second, respectively, with 778.7 million and 521.9 million people in their respective labor forces. Indonesia is fourth with 125 million people. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plays a key role in estimating future labor force participation rates and the level and growth of the workforce over the next 10 years.
This is done by multiplying projected labor force participation rates of each group by the Census Bureau's most recent demographic projections. This helps to determine the supply of labor for each demographic category and for the economy as a whole. The three components of demographic change – fertility, mortality rates, and international migration – all have an impact on population projections. Fertility is often the most important component, as each additional birth not only increases the population of the following year, but also that person's projected lifetime population. Mortality occurs mainly at older ages and when older age groups have already left the workforce, so it has no significant impact on workforce projections. Immigration is also a key factor in population projections.
It is the most uncertain and difficult to project, as it can change quickly and has a direct impact on all age groups. An increase in immigration levels among different gender, age, race, and ethnicity groups can significantly change the composition of both the population and workforce. The resident population is expected to grow much more slowly in the coming decades due to lower projected levels of births and net international migration according to Census Bureau projections. To convert Census Bureau projections for the resident population into projections for the non-institutional civilian population, several steps are taken. First, children from 0 to 15 years of age are subtracted from the resident population to obtain those over 16 years of age. Second, those in the Armed Forces are subtracted from this result to obtain an estimate of the civilian population.
Finally, non-institutional civilian populations of each category are added together to get a total non-institutional civilian population. The labor force participation rate – which is the proportion of non-institutional civilian population that is part of the labor force – is one of the key measures of labor market activity. Each age, gender, race and ethnic group exhibits a different socioeconomic trend and therefore a different labor force participation rate. The time series of all groups are softened and trends are extrapolated to get an overall participation rate that is weighted by each group's population. Labor force participation is usually lower among young people, increasing during prime working years before declining dramatically after age 55 as workers leave the workforce. Baby boomers have gradually moved from prime age groups with high participation rates (over 80 percent) to those 55 and older with much lower participation rates, putting downward pressure on aggregate participation rate. The Millennial Generation (those aged 16-24 and 25-34) will make up nearly 34 percent of the workforce in 2024. Census Bureau population projections point to lower population growth due to declining fertility rates over the next 20 years.
However, different results can be obtained by relaxing or otherwise modifying these assumptions – such as through a different immigration policy – which could lead to higher population growth and therefore an increase in labor force size.