However, the labor force participation rate did not recover as quickly. This low participation rate during COVID-19 has been attributed to several factors, such as the demand for care for dependent people, the increase in unemployment benefits or people who fear getting sick due to the COVID virus. Returning to the current period, in the last six months the unemployed as a percentage of the population have risen at major recession rates (Figure 5a). The proportion of the population that is unemployed and leaves the labor force tends to increase when the labor market is relatively weak.
In addition, participation rates tend to increase during the expansionary periods that follow these declines as jobs increase, suggesting that participation rates are likely to increase in the coming years as workers rejoin the workforce to cover high levels of job offers. This seemingly contradictory pattern of overall decline in labor force participation, but increases across all age groups, was also evident at the state level. An additional study will examine whether these people who are retiring are long-term unemployed and may be losing their attachment to the labor market. The general view about the fall in labor force participation rates is that discouraged workers are leaving the labor force.
An examination of labor market turnover among older people, by education and gender, shows that people with less than a degree have the highest dropout rates overall (figures 4a and 4b). While the magnitude of the decline in labor force participation rates during the pandemic was unprecedented, Figure 2 shows that participation rates tend to decline during or immediately after a recession. By protecting people's rights to do the type of work that works best for them and not forcing workers to join unions, policy makers can expand opportunities for people to achieve meaningful and rewarding work. On top of that, the longer lawmakers continue to expand the size and reach of government and the national debt, a declining workforce could become a vicious cycle.
Therefore, a declining participation rate means that the fraction of the population that has gainful employment or is actively seeking work is steadily decreasing. The exit rate fell in the following months and last year, but it remains high compared to the average of the previous five years. Despite the fact that the unemployment rate has fallen back to historically low levels, the labor force participation rate (LFPR, which measures the proportion of the population that has employment or is unemployed and is looking for work) remains low. Labor demand measured by job offers or vacancies has started to cool down, but it is still high compared to the pre-pandemic period.
To expand their workforce, these regions with aging and declining populations will need to increase the participation rates of current residents and try to attract new residents through national or international migration.
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